share of global trade by country

Even if trade is not a major driver of income inequalities, it’s important to keep in mind that public policies, such as unemployment benefits and other safety-net programs, can and should help redistribute the gains from trade. Even if you focus on what seems to be the same indicator for the same year in the same country, discrepancies are large. This result is important, because it shows that there are gains from trade. London-based data visualisation studio Kiln, The Economy: Economics for a Changing World, welfare gains from increased product variety, they benefit differently from changes in relative prices, trade is not a major driver of income inequalities, Here is the same chart but showing imports, produce more than a couple of decades ago, Here is the same chart, but showing imports, World Investment Report 2018 – Investment and New Industrial Policies, slowdown in the rate of growth of trade in goods and services, relative to global GDP, Here is a stacked area chart showing the total composition of exports by partnership, NBER-United Nations Trade Dataset Project, CEPII Bilateral Trade and Gravity Data Project, International Merchandise Trade Statistics Manual, Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, System of National Accounts of the United Nations. (NB. This refers to investors gaining a clear perspective on the risks and opportunities that exist in the country. (NB. Trade (% of GDP) from The World Bank: Data. In particular, comparing changes in employment at the regional level misses the fact that firms operate in multiple regions and industries at the same time. (2008). China as one of the most populous countries in the world is the most prominent example, ranking only 61st for trade. Alcalá, F., & Ciccone, A. The chart, from UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2018 – Investment and New Industrial Policies, shows trends of gross exports, broken down into domestic and foreign value added. Precisely because of the difficulty that arises when trying to establish the origin and final destination of merchandise, some sources distinguish between national and dyadic (i.e. Firms scanning the world market for opportunities to diversify products, markets and suppliers, and trade support institutions (TSIs) setting priorities in terms of trade promotion, sectoral performance, partner countries and trade development strategies must have detailed statistical information on international trade flows in order to utilize resources effectively. In the chart we see a large drop in the interwar period. But this is hardly a consolation for those who are worse off. American Economic Review, 103(6), 2121-68. The imported goods and services incorporated in a country’s exports are a key indicator of economic integration – they tell us something about ‘global value chains’, where the different stages of the production process are located across different countries. As we explain below, part of the asymmetries in trade data come from the fact that, although ‘merchandise’ and ‘goods’ are equivalent in the dictionary, these two terms often measure related but different things. have been adjusted to account for inflation) and are indexed at 1913 values. And third, the amount that country A reports exporting to country B does not usually match the amount that B reports importing from A. Featured Reports; Global Macro Economy - Latest News; Popular Reports; Global Perspective; Share of Global GDP by Country; Foreign Exchange Rate Indian Rupees / USD; Average Size of a Loan in India; Number of People Getting Loans in India; UK. The reductions in transaction costs had an impact, not only on the volumes of trade, but also on the types of exchanges that were possible and profitable. Table III.1World merchandise exports by region, 1999 (file size 86KB) 1. But it remains true that many countries still do not trade with each other at all (in 2014 about 25% of all country-pairs recorded no trade). A., & Romer, D. H. (1999). by service: imports or exports; by country: imports or exports; Trade Map is part of a suite of Market Analysis Tools developed by ITC. This approach is problematic because it fails to consider welfare gains from increased product variety, and obscures complicated distributional issues such as the fact that poor and rich individuals consume different baskets so they benefit differently from changes in relative prices.15, Ideally, studies looking at the impact of trade on household welfare should rely on fine-grained data on prices, consumption and earnings. Among the potential growth-enhancing factors that may come from greater global economic integration are: Competition (firms that fail to adopt new technologies and cut costs are more likely to fail and to be replaced by more dynamic firms); Economies of scale (firms that can export to the world face larger demand, and under the right conditions, they can operate at larger scales where the price per unit of product is lower); Learning and innovation (firms that trade gain more experience and exposure to develop and adopt technologies and industry standards from foreign competitors).2. Exports grew 9.9% in … At the individual level, comparative advantage explains why you might want to delegate tasks to someone else, even if you can do those tasks better and faster than them. For now, the picture is upbeat. Overall, the dollar value of exported chemicals rose by an average 13.7% for all exporting countries since 2015 when chemical shipments were valued at $478.6 billion. Factor immobility and regional impacts of trade liberalization: Evidence on poverty from India. (2005). But this has been changing quickly over the last couple of decades, and today trade between non-rich countries is just as important as trade between rich countries. Klasing and Milionis (2014), which is one of the sources in the chart, published an additional set of estimates under an alternative specification. There are two key lessons from all of this. Online here. If we consider all pairs of countries that engage in trade around the world, we find that in the majority of cases, there is a bilateral relationship today: Most countries that export goods to a country, also import goods from the same country. goods in transit) are not considered to change the stock of material resources of a country, and are hence often excluded from the more narrow concept of ‘merchandise trade’. In the late 1970s, North-South agreements accounted for more than half of all agreements – in 2010, they accounted for about one quarter. This is the approach followed in Atkin, Faber, and Gonzalez-Navarro (2018): “Retail globalization and household welfare: Evidence from Mexico”.16. It’s a scatter plot of cross-regional exposure to rising imports, against changes in employment. Estimating trade flows: Trading partners and trading volumes (No. This means that job losses in some regions subsidized new jobs in other parts of the country. ‘directed’) trade estimates. (ii) Fajgelbaum, P. D., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2016). (2004). The main takeaway here are the country-specific trends, which are positive and more pronounced than in the charts showing shares of GDP. the value of merchandise trade as a share of global economic output). According to recent estimates, about 30% of the value of global exports comes from foreign inputs. This interactive chart shows trade in services as share of GDP across countries and regions.). David, H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013). All OECD countries compile their data according to the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA). View international trade statistics by country or region to obtain the following (i) country or region's overall exports, imports and tariffs (i) details of exports and imports with various partner countries along with partner share and Most Favored Nation (MFN) and Effective Applied Tariff (AHS) tariffs imposed. So if we observe that a country’s distance from other countries is a powerful predictor of economic growth (after accounting for other characteristics), then the conclusion is drawn that it must be because trade has an effect on economic growth. Next release: January 7, 2021 Complete Release Schedule Online here. Add country For example, the evidence shows that producers in exporting countries often need credit in order to engage in trade. You can plot trends by region using the option ‘ On the whole, Magyari finds that although Chinese imports may have reduced employment within some establishments, these losses were more than offset by gains in employment within the same firms in other places. This process of integration, often called Globalization, has materialized in a remarkable growth in trade between countries. Some of these institutions are fairly obvious (e.g. She found a positive impact on firm productivity in the import-competing sector. The Review of Economic Studies, 69(1), 245-276. If all asymmetries were coming from CIF-FOB differences, then we should only see positive values in the chart (recall that, unlike FOB values, CIF values include the cost of transportation, so CIF values are larger). Broadly speaking, there are two main approaches used to estimate international merchandise trade: Under these two approaches, it is common to distinguish between ‘traded merchandise’ and ‘traded goods’. Another common source of measurement error relates to the inconsistent attribution of trade partners. In 2016, the EU, the United States and China recorded the world’s highest trade values in goods, together accounting for 46 % of global exports of goods and 45 % of global imports. As we can see, there is a net positive welfare effect across all income groups; but these improvements in welfare are regressive, in the sense that richer households gain proportionally more (about 7.5 percent gain compared to 5 percent).17, Evidence from other countries confirms this is not an isolated case – the expenditure channel really seems to be an important and understudied source of household welfare. The first lesson is that, for most users of trade data out there, there is no obvious way of choosing between sources. The online access is here. Trade in commercial services 36 Global value chains, 2005-2015 42 Digital trade 44 V. Leading traders and the role of developing economies in world trade 46 Leading players 48 Regional performance 52 Regional trade agreements (RTAs) 55 Developing economies 57 Least-developed countries 62 VI. Economists usually distinguish between “general equilibrium consumption effects” (i.e. These figures, produced by the World Bank, correspond to the Standard International Trade Classification, in which ‘food’ includes, among other goods, live animals, beverages, tobacco, coffee, oils, and fats. This has an impact on households, both as consumers and as wage earners. The 20 countries with the highest trade balance deficit in 2019. Colombia is a notable case in point: food went from 77% of merchandise exports in 1962, to 15.9% in 2015. The textbook The Economy: Economics for a Changing World explains this in more detail here: (2016). In the second wave of globalization we are seeing a rise in intra-industry trade (i.e. Trade transactions include both goods (tangible products that are physically shipped) and services (intangible commodities, such as tourism and financial services). For an overview of papers and methods see: Durlauf, S. N., Johnson, P. A., & Temple, J. R. (2005). (NB. the sum of the value of exports from all Western European countries, divided by total GDP in this region). First, there has been a substantial decrease in the relative importance of food exports since 1960s in most countries (although globally in the last decade it has gone up slightly). Trade in goods has been happening for millenia; while trade in services is a relatively recent phenomenon. I focus here on all countries with data over the period 1945-2014. Even when two sources have identical trade estimates, inconsistencies in published data can arise from differences in exchange rates. Regarding levels, as one would expect, in high income countries food still accounts for a much smaller share of merchandise exports than in most low- and middle-income-countries. For example, for China in 2010, the estimated total value of goods exports was $1.48 trillion according to World Bank Data, but it was $1.58 trillion according to WTO Data. License : CC BY-4.0 Up to 1870, the sum of worldwide exports accounted for less than 10% of global output. The IMF’s DOTS dataset, for example, uses a 6 percent rule for converting import valuations (in CIF) into export values (in FOB). Here is the same chart but showing imports, rather than exports.). In the paper, Atkin and coauthors explore the reasons for this, and find that the regressive nature of the distribution is mainly due to richer households placing higher weight on the product variety and shopping amenities on offer at these new foreign stores. As global production chains become more complex, countries find it increasingly difficult to unambiguously establish the origin and final destination of merchandise, even when rules are established in the manuals. Is trade a major driver of income inequality? The empirical evidence shows that comparative advantage is indeed relevant; but it is not the only force driving incentives to specialization and trade. Differences in import and export valuations: are transactions valued at FOB or CIF prices? Add country Measuring the unequal gains from trade. Trade transactions include goods (tangible products that are physically shipped across borders by road, rail, water, or air) and services (intangible commodities, such as tourism, financial services, and legal advice). The printed version is published in 3 volumes: Africa, Asia, Oceania – The Americas – Europe. It is measured in million USD, as percentage of GDP for net trade, and also in annual growth for exports and imports. The conceptual link between trade and household welfare, The link between trade and the cost of living, Wrapping up: Net welfare effects and implications, Two centuries of trade, country by country. The chart shows the value of exports (goods plus services) in dollars, country by country. Other issues: Time of recording, confidentiality policies, product classification, deliberate misinvoicing for illicit purposes. The empirical evidence suggests that the principle of comparative advantage does help explain trade patterns. Frankel, J. For some households, the net effect is positive. The interactive chart here, from The Atlas of Economic Complexity, at the Centre for International Development in the Harvard Kennedy School, shows a breakdown of the United Kingdom’s total merchandise and service exports by product category, for 2018. They loaded 58 per cent and unloaded 65 per cent of the world total. For more information on how the COW trade datasets were constructed see: (i) Barbieri, Katherine and Omar M. G. Omar Keshk. In 1990, the share was about 25%. In theory, for example, the exports of country A to country B should mirror the imports of country B from country A. You can add more series by clicking on the option ‘ The concept of comparative advantage predicts that if all countries had identical endowments and institutions, then there would be little incentives for specialization, because the opportunity cost of producing any good would be the same in every country. Because distributional concerns are real it is important to promote public policies – such as unemployment benefits and other safety-net programs – that help redistribute the gains from trade. Hopefully the discussion and checklist above can help researchers better interpret and choose between conflicting data sources. Other papers have applied the same approach to richer cross-country data, and they have found similar results. This is no consolation to people who lost their job. This issue is actually also a source of disagreement between National Accounts data and customs data. Online here. This new – and ongoing – wave of globalization has seen international trade grow faster than ever before. Merchandise trade statistics data for By Country (BY-COUNTRY) exports, Export Share in Total Products in % to World (WLD) for years 1988 to 2018 European Economic Review, 52(4), 667-699. The following visualization shows a detailed overview of Western European exports by destination. Source: Bloomberg Economics. The forgone opportunities of production are key to understand this concept. Pavcnik (2002) examined the effects of liberalized trade on plant productivity in the case of Chile, during the late 1970s and early 1980s. As we can see, bilateral trade is becoming increasingly common (the middle portion has grown substantially). Each country tells a different story. There are many papers that try to answer this specific question with macro data. (NB. Pavcnik, N. (2002). Second, the global openness index includes trade in goods and services, while merchandise exports include goods but not services. Latest trends in world trade 2017-2018 26 General trends and drivers of trade in 2017 28 World trade and output in early 2018 37 IV. Trefler, D. (2004). In this case, the pilot has an absolute advantage in both tasks. Suppose the pilot is an excellent chef, and she can bake just as well, or even better than the baker. As a consequence, local markets respond, and prices change. On theories explaining the success of the gravity equation. This is consistent with the fact that, after the global financial crisis, there has been a slowdown in the rate of growth of trade in goods and services, relative to global GDP. The global arms trade is now worth $100bn annually, with the US increasingly dominant as the world's top arms exporter. the country's trade to world trade. In 2019, developing economies still accounted for the largest share of global seaborne trade, both in terms of exports and imports. Manuals, guides, and other material on statistical practices at the IMF, in member countries, and of the statistical community at large are also available. Available online here. Broadberry and O’Rourke (2010) – The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2, 1870 to the Present. The chart includes series labeled by the sources as ‘merchandise trade’ and ‘goods trade’. Using Survey Data to Assess the Distributional Effects of Trade Policy. Handbook of economic growth, 1, 555-677. For any given year, we see that there is a lot of variation across countries. So, if all series are in the same units (share of national GDP), and they all measure the same thing (value of goods exported from one country to the rest of the world), what explains the differences? Firm Reorganization, Chinese Imports, and US Manufacturing Employment. The distinction is often made because goods simply being transported through a country (i.e. In this interactive chart you can explore trends in trade openness over this period for a selection of European countries.). As we can see, intercontinental trade was very dynamic, with volumes varying considerably across time and from empire to empire. The visualization here shows the evolution of the cumulative number of preferential trade agreements that are in force across the world, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Handbook of economic growth, 1, 1419-1497. Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson (1969) was once challenged by the mathematician Stanislaw Ulam: “Name me one proposition in all of the social sciences which is both true and non-trivial.” It was several years later than he thought of the correct response: comparative advantage. Many traded services make merchandise trade easier or cheaper—for example, shipping services, or insurance and financial services. The US is the world’s second-largest trader at 11.5 percent of total trade, followed by Germany at 7.7 percent. This shows that over the last hundred years of economic growth, there has been more than proportional growth in global trade. In economic theory, the ‘economic cost’ – or the ‘opportunity cost’ – of producing a good is the value of everything you need to give up in order to produce that good. The OECD’s Balanced International Merchandise Trade Statistics, for example, uses its own approach to correct and reconcile international merchandise trade statistics.43. Yet many countries stick to FOB values only for exports, and use CIF values for imports (CIF stands for ‘Cost, Insurance and Freight’, and includes the costs of transportation).40. An example is failure to follow the guidelines on how to treat goods passing through intermediary countries for processing or merchanting purposes. America's share of the global export market is declining, and world trade is at its "worst performance in nearly a decade." Goods and services – what is being traded? In this study, Frankel and Romer used geography as a proxy for trade, in order to estimate the impact of trade on growth. This metric (the ratio of total trade, exports plus imports, to global GDP) is known as the ‘openness index’. The so-called trade openness index is an economic metric calculated as the ratio of country’s total trade (the sum of exports plus imports) to the country’s gross domestic product. Given the high weighting of U.S. stocks in global sectors and industries, having a U.S. view is important. Let’s now take a look at trade in monetary terms – this tells us the importance of trade in absolute, rather than relative terms. As we can see, there is a strong negative relationship. The chart here shows the value of world exports over the period 1800-2014. The long and short of the Canada-US free trade agreement. The evidence from India shows that (i) discussions that only look at “winners” in poor countries and “losers” in rich countries miss the point that the gains from trade are unequally distributed within both sets of countries; and (ii) context-specific factors, like worker mobility across sectors and geographic regions, are crucial to understand the impact of trade on incomes. For example: We see that 48% of the total value of Indian exports in 2014 went to Asian countries. In the past two decades China has been a key driver of this dynamic: the UN Human Development Report (2013) estimates that between 1992 and 2011, China’s trade with Sub-Saharan Africa rose from $1 billion to more than $140 billion. Confronting Tobacco Illicit Trade: A Global Review of Country Experiences, prepared in collaboration with a multisectoral team across different institutions, demonstrates that reducing illicit trade in tobacco products is critical whether viewed from the perspective of … Chart III.3World trade in commercial services by selected re… More information can be found at the IMF’s (2018) working paper on ‘New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics’. Integration in the goods markets is measured here through the ‘trade openness index’, which is defined by the sum of exports and imports as share of GDP. All series, except the two long-run series from CEPII and NBER-UN, were produced from data published by the sources in current US dollars, and then converted to GDP shares using a unique source (World Bank).38. Structural Gravity Equations with Intensive and Extensive Margins. Language and foreign trade. By 2018, its total trade in goods had jumped to $4.6 trillion or 12.4 percent of global trade. At some universities you can access the online version of the books where data tables can be downloaded as ePDFs and Excel files. Trade liberalization, exit, and productivity improvements: Evidence from Chilean plants. Trade in goods and services is defined as the transactions in goods and services between residents and non-residents. Learn how the World Bank Group is helping countries with COVID-19 (coronavirus). The idea is that specialization allows countries to reap greater economies of scale (i.e. National Bureau of Economic Research. The exchange of capital, goods and services across international borders is known as international trade and in many countries it represents a significant share of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP.) Magyari, I. Available online here. These are proportional gains, and are expressed as percent of initial household income. This chart shows an extraordinary growth in international trade over the last couple of centuries: Exports today are more than 40 times larger than in 1913. That’s a difference of about 7%, or a hundred billion US dollars. For example, for China, the figure in the chart corresponds to the “Value of merchandise imports in the US from China” minus “Value of merchandise exports from China to the US”. Such differences between sources can also be found for rich countries where statistical agencies tend to follow international reporting guidelines more closely. Exchange rates: how are values converted from local currency units to the currency that allows international comparisons (most often the US-$)? Trefler (2004) looks at the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and finds there was a group who bore “adjustment costs” (displaced workers and struggling plants) and a group who enjoyed “long-run gains” (consumers and efficient plants). This article was first published in 2014; last revised in October 2018. Broadberry and O’Rourke (2010) – The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2, 1870 to the Present. We explore this in more detail in our blog post Trade data: why doesn’t it add up? In Italy, for example, Eurostat figures of the value of exported goods in 2015 are 10% higher than the merchandise trade figures published by the OECD. The graph here shows the price changes of the key tradable goods after the opening up to trade. Atkin, David, Benjamin Faber, and Marco Gonzalez-Navarro. Berlingieri, G., Breinlich, H., & Dhingra, S. (2018). The settings tab allows you to choose alternative product classes, trade flows choices, and the level of product aggregation. Indeed, international organizations often incorporate corrections, in an attempt to improve data quality along these lines. But as this chart shows, the share of services in total global exports has increased, from 17% in 1979 to 24% in 2017. In Europe, for example, countries use the ‘Compilers guide on European statistics on international trade in goods’. So, at least from an efficiency point of view, you should specialize on what you are best at, and delegate the rest. Understanding this transformative process is important because trade has generated gains, but it has also had important distributional consequences. This chart was inspired by a chart from Helpman, E., Melitz, M., & Rubinstein, Y. American Economic Review, 94(4), 870-895. This is an important obstacle, since the complex adjustments introduced by the OECD imply we can’t easily improve coverage by appending data from other sources. Financial integration is measured using Feldstein–Horioka estimators of current account disconnectedness.’ This data is taken from: Bayoumi 1990; Flandreau and Rivière 1999; Bordo and Flandreau 2003; Obstfeld and Taylor 2003. She finds that rural regions that were more exposed to liberalization, experienced a slower decline in poverty, and had lower consumption growth. The following visualization presents a compilation of available trade estimates, showing the evolution of world exports and imports as a share of global economic output. World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files. The visualization shows how, at the global level, costs across these three variables have been going down since 1930. Related research entries in Our World in Data: The integration of national economies into a global economic system has been one of the most important developments of the last century. It’s the same data, but plotted with stacked series.). The increase in trade among emerging economies over the last half century has been accompanied by an important change in the composition of exported goods in these countries. The interactive data visualization, created by the London-based data visualisation studio Kiln and the UCL Energy Institute, gives us an insight into the complex nature of trade. Through econometric modeling, the paper shows that this relationship is not just a correlation driven by other factors: their findings suggest that distance imposes a significant barrier to trade. The global trade finance market was valued at $39714.2 million in 2018 and is expected to reach $56,065.7 million by 2026, registering a CAGR of 3.79% from 2019 to 2026. These numbers include notified and non-notified preferential agreements (the source reports that only about two-thirds of the agreements currently in force have been notified to the WTO), and are disaggregated by country groups. It plots the position of cargo ships across the oceans. Retrieved from doi:1. Another important paper in this field is Topalova (2010): “Factor immobility and regional impacts of trade liberalization: Evidence on poverty from India”.11. Online here. It’s important to mention here that the economist Jonathan Rothwell recently wrote a paper suggesting these findings are the result of a statistical illusion. “That it is logically true need not be argued before a mathematician; that is is not trivial is attested by the thousands of important and intelligent men who have never been able to grasp the doctrine for themselves or to believe it after it was explained to them.” (NB. This page provides values for Balance of Trade reported in several countries. Trade is recognized as a key factor for the 2030 Agenda, including poverty reduction and economic growth (Tipping and Wolfe, 2016). Trade: export volume worldwide 1950-2018. Melitz, J. (2017). As we can see, up until the Second World War the majority of trade transactions involved exchanges between this small group of rich countries. The contribution of the empire to Portugal’s economic growth, 1500–1800 Leonor Freire Costa Nuno Palma Jaime Reis European Review of Economic History, Volume 19, Issue 1, 1 February 2015, Pages 1–22,

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